There was a small flurry late last year around the good news that the fertility rate in Australia has risen slightly to almost 1.8 children per woman per lifetime. It is good news, but no reason for complacency.
Some wonder what all the fuss is about. It is really very simple. A society which does not have enough children to reproduce itself will be replaced by another. Europeans find themselves confronted by this fact with some urgency.
Like Australia today, declining fertility rates in Europe were partly compensated by a younger child-bearing population and immigration. Up until 2000 it was still possible for Europe to stabilise its population with a relatively modest increase in the number of children per family to just over two.
But after 2000 decades of low fertility came home to roost as the larger group of baby-boom women (1945-65) approached the end of their child-bearing years. To the keep Europe's population at its current level a fertility rate of 2.1 is no longer enough. A rate of 4.0 is now required.
Europe from Iceland to Russia west of the Ural Mountains recorded a fertility rate of only 1.37 in 2000. This means that fertility is only at 65% of the level needed to keep the population stable. In 17 European nations that year deaths outnumbered births. Some regions in Germany, Italy and Spain already have fertility rates below 1.0.
To see what this means over a century, consider Russia and Yemen. In 1950 Russia had about 103 million people. Despite the devastation of wars and revolution the population was still young and growing. Yemen had only 4.3 million people.
By 2000 fertility was in radical decline in Russia, but because of past momentum the population stood at 145 million. Yemen had maintained a fertility rate of 7.6 over the previous 50 years and now had 18.3 million people.
Median level United Nations forecasts suggest that even with fertility rates increasing by 50% in Russia over the next fifty years, its population will be about 104 million in 2050 " a loss of 40 million people. It will also be an elderly population.
The same forecasts suggest that even if Yemen's fertility rate falls 50% to 3.35, by 2050 it will be about the same size as Russia " 102 million " and overwhelmingly young.
Population projections for Australia suggest that if fertility remains around 1.75 and immigration remains at current levels, deaths will outnumber births in forty years time.
The total population will increase to 28 million in 2051, but children under 14 will comprise only 16% (from 21% in 1999). The number of people over 65 will treble and make up 27% of the population (from 12% in 1999).
Europe's fate need not be ours, but we need to draw the lessons from it now.
