The contentious presidential race dominates the political news these days. However, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are not the only names that will appear on the ballot on November 2nd. Thirty-four states are also holding U. S. Senate elections, and in twelve of these states, the races are competitive.
The Republicans currently control the Senate by a margin of 51-49. Issues like abortion, embryonic stem cell research, gay “marriage,” and judicial nominations are key in many races. As a result, Catholic voters will play an important role in settling which party controls the Senate for the next two years.
South Dakota tops the list of Senate races to watch and it represents one the Republicans' best opportunities to pick-up a seat held by a Democrat. Minority Leader Tom Daschle, the top Democrat in the Senate, is in the race of his life. He is running against former Congressman John Thune, who lost to South Dakota’s other senator, Tim Johnson, by fewer than 600 votes in 2002. A late September Rasmussen poll gives Thune a 4-point advantage while other polls show the race virtually tied.
Daschle, like many self-described Catholic Democrats, is facing intense criticism for his abominable pro-abortion record and his central role in blocking pro-life judicial nominations. In 2002, Rapid City Bishop Blase Cupich rebuked Daschle for his participation in a NARAL fundraising letter. In the appeal, Daschle wrote, “As the Majority Leader of the US Senate, I've stood up for a woman's right to choose, and the pro-choice leadership of the Senate has made a difference by safeguarding women's rights from the anti-choice agenda of the Bush administration.” In a letter read at all masses in November 2002, Bishop Cupich said, “It is clear that the senator has not only aligned himself with the strident position of NARAL, but he has also made abortion the issue of this year's campaign. Since Senator Daschle has now decided to frame this year's election uniquely as a referendum on abortion, he should know that there are citizens of good will in both parties who reject this extreme position and who cannot let it go unchallenged.”
The abortion issue continues to haunt Daschle. Earlier this week, the Rapid City Journal asked him several times about abortion. “Daschle refuses to say whether he is pro-choice on abortion” and he “stated his long-standing personal view that each abortion is a tragedy but that the solution lies in finding better options rather than criminalizing the act itself.” The Journal also brought up his involvement in the 2002 NARAL fundraising appeal. “When reminded that he had said in the October 29, 2002 letter, that the ‘Senate's pro-choice leadership’ was being threatened by an ‘anti-choice force,’ he still refused to say whether he considered himself pro-choice. Daschle also questioned the appropriateness of the question.” Ave Maria List, a Catholic political action committee, is running sixty-second radio commercials in South Dakota. According to the Argus Leader, the ads charge that Daschle has “switched his position on several key issues, including abortion rights, balancing the budget, protecting gun ownership and the sanctity of marriage.”
Surprisingly, the Republicans also have a chance of defeating incumbent Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold. Upstart challenger Tim Michels, a pro-life Catholic executive with military credentials and three children, is running stronger than expected. Feingold received a perfect 100% for his abortion record from NARAL and Planned Parenthood, and he roundly criticized the need for a Federal Marriage Amendment when the Senate addressed the issue earlier this year. While some polls show Feingold with a healthy lead, a mid-September ABC News poll puts the incumbent ahead by only six points. Keep an eye on this race.
The other Democrat incumbent worth discussing is the self-described Catholic Patty Murray, a longtime abortion supporter from Washington State. She faces Republican Congressman George Nethercutt, who gained national prominence in 1994 when he defeated then-Speaker of the House Tom Foley. Most polls have Murray comfortably leading by double-digits, although political insiders believe this race will tighten by election day.
The Republicans' strongest opportunity to pick up seats lies in the five Democrat open seats (those seats currently occupied by a Democrat incumbent who is not seeking re-election). All five seats are in the conservative South, and the races in South Carolina and Georgia are near locks for the GOP. In South Carolina, Republican Congressman Jim DeMint faces Democrat rival Inez Tenenbaum. A late September poll shows DeMint at nearly 50% with Tenenbaum stuck at 38%. The race to fill the Georgia Senate seat vacated by Democrat Zell Miller, who spoke at the National Republican Convention, features incumbent Republican Congressman Johnny Isakson against incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Denise Majette. A poll conducted last week shows Isakson leading Majette 53-37%.
The remaining Democrat open seats are still too close to call. In North Carolina, former Clinton administration official Erskin Bowles, who lost to Senator Liddy Dole in 2002, battles Republican Congressman Richard Burr. Bowles was ahead most of the race until recently, when polls started showing it a dead heat. In the Florida Senate race on the Republican side is Mel Martinez, a former Cuban refugee and pro-life Catholic, who recently served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Martinez faces Democrat educator Betty Castor, who served as a state senator and Florida Education Commissioner. Castor has received significant funding from Emily’s List, the powerful pro-abortion political organization. In the most recent poll, Martinez has opened a 4-point lead over Castor.
The fifth open Democrat seat is in Louisiana, which conducts its elections differently. Other states have a primary that narrows the field of candidates to one Democrat and one Republican, who then face off in the general election. In Louisiana all candidates are in the race until election day (November 2 this year). If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, he wins outright. If no one reaches 50%, the top two vote-getters wage a campaign for roughly six weeks, at which point the state holds another election in early December to decide the winner. The latest poll completed on September 23rd shows incumbent Republican Congressman David Vitter at 44%, Democrat incumbent Congressman Chris John at 24%, and Democrat State Treasurer John Kennedy at 18%. Louisiana has a heavy concentration of Catholics, and issues like abortion and gay “marriage” are important.
The Democrats' best chance to defeat an incumbent Republican is in Alaska, not normally a land of opportunity for them. The trouble for Republicans began in 2002, when former Senator Frank Murkowski won Alaska’s governorship and then appointed his daughter, Lisa, to fill his vacant seat. Nepotism charges have tarnished her short career in Washington. Lisa Murkowski, a self-described Catholic, survived a primary from a pro-life and pro-family challenger, who ran against her support for abortion and her waffling on the Federal Marriage Amendment. She faces a formidable candidate in former Democrat Governor Tony Knowles. Knowles has enjoyed leads in the 7-point range, although an October 2nd poll has Murkowski closing the gap to 3 points (48-45%).
The Democrats also have opportunities to pick up three open Republican seats. They have essentially won Illinois. The popular and charismatic Democrat State Senator Barack Obama lost his original Republican challenger after scandalous details contained in the Republican’s divorce record became public. Conservative Catholic Alan Keyes, the former presidential candidate dedicated to pro-life and pro-family causes, entered the race late even though he is not from Illinois. Keyes is making headlines and is using the opportunity to attack Obama for his pro-abortion stance. The latest poll has Obama leading Keyes 69-24%.
Two other open Republican seats, Colorado and Oklahoma, are much more competitive. In Colorado, Democrat State Attorney General Ken Salazar faces Pete Coors, the great-grandson of the Coors brewery founder. Colorado is a toss-up in the presidential race, so whoever wins the state could help decide the fate of the Senate race. Recent polls are mixed with one showing Coors up by 5 points and another showing Salazar leading by a point.
The twelfth and final competitive race is in Oklahoma, another conservative state where Republicans normally do not have difficulty. This open-seat election features Democrat incumbent Congressman Brad Carson against feisty former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn. Carson considers himself a moderate-to-conservative Democrat and he is trying to paint Colburn as an ultraconservative out of the mainstream. Carson leads Colburn by 6 points and 2 points in separate polls taken last week.
While many of these races are close, a Democrat takeover of the Senate is a monumental task, according to a Republican Senate campaign committee staffer. In short, it is a numbers game. Republicans are all but guaranteed 47 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats can rely on 41 seats, including Independent Jim Jeffords, who caucuses with the Democrats. For the Democrats to capture the majority, they must win 10 of the 12 competitive races highlighted above. Republicans only need to hold four of these 12 to preserve their majority.
St. Thomas More, pray for us.
© Copyright 2004 Catholic Exchange
Craig Richardson is the founder of the recently launched Catholic Action Network, an organization committed to calling Catholics to authentic and faithful citizenship particularly on issues of life and family.
