Everyone knows how important the Catholic vote is. But the question remains: who are they, and which candidate is connecting with them to the greatest degree?
First off, it must be admitted that there really is no Catholic vote per se. We Catholics simply do not vote as a unit the way, say, our Fundamentalist brothers and sisters do. We’re a confusing lot — culturally distinct and professing a common faith, but with little continuity in our buying, leisure or voting habits.
As voters, Catholics are virtually indistinguishable from the general populace, which makes us a wonderful barometer for where America is as a country, but also serves as a source of frustration for those charged with attracting our support. The only Catholics who vote in a unified pattern are the committed churchgoers, who constitute only about half of the Catholic demographic, according to a groundbreaking survey by Crisis Magazine. These active Catholics tend to vote pro-life while remaining deeply concerned about “social justice” issues like poverty, immigration, and a just wage.
In 1996, I investigated the Clinton strategy for capturing the Catholic vote. At that time, one of the president’s lead Catholic consultants told me that the typical Catholic voter constructs “a mosaic” of the candidates in his mind consisting of issues, images and sounds. From that mosaic, the Catholic voter makes his choice. It is a crucial bit of knowledge.
The Clinton strategy — which obviously worked, despite his support for abortion-on-demand and as host of other Catholic no-no’s — was to connect with voters on things other than the issues. He appeared congenial, made speeches at Catholic Universities, sang the praises of Ireland, and cheesed it up for the cameras with Mother Teresa and Pope John Paul II. Bill Clinton understood the Catholic vote in a way Bob Dole simply did not. This go ‘round, it appears Bush has the edge.
According to the latest polling data, the Vice President is still leading among Catholic voters, but only by a hair. In the past month, Gore went from an 11-point lead of 52% to 41%, to a three-point lead of 48% to Bush’s 45%. In the final sprint to the White House, Bush appears to be gaining ground. I predict he will capture the Catholic vote, and the presidency, for the following three reasons:
1) The Bush camp and its Catholic task force wisely targeted the 25 percent of Mass-attending Catholics, smoothing over their concerns while connecting on the issues. These are voters who are largely pro-life, but concerned about the harsh tenor of Republicans like Newt Gingrich and company. Bush won many of these Catholics over when he promised to ban partial-birth abortion. In his acceptance speech at the convention, he even made reference to a “culture of life,” knowing that it would resonate with any Catholic who even remotely listens to Pope John Paul II. But the thing that cinched the deal was Bush’s non-threatening manner and apparent concern. He has been firm without being judgmental, and to many Catholics this has enormous stylistic appeal.
2) Compassionate conservatism. Over the last few elections Catholics have been migrating to the GOP, but not without reservations. Though fiscally conservative and concerned about our country’s moral decline, Catholics are not as resolutely anti-government as the Republican Party in general. With his “compassionate conservative” message emphasizing personal responsibility and a government renewal rather than a demolition, Bush has struck a chord with Catholics by making them feel comfortable with him.
3) Bush’s optimism and positive message will eventually bring the “non-active Catholic voters” into his column as well. Though this is only a theory, I believe recent history proves that these Catholics cast their votes based on overall likeability. Reagan had it. Clinton had it. Bush has it as well. These Catholics (sadly) do not vote on issues, but rather look to see which man has the warmth, charisma and charm to lead. Gore’s petulant outbursts during the debates and his condescending air on the stump has alienated many of these Catholic undecideds who otherwise would be in his camp. If George Bush can continue to deliver body blows to his opponent without appearing negative, the Catholic vote is his for the taking.
In a few days we will know if any of these prognostications are worth the software they were created on. But until then, expect to see Mr. Gore soften his routine in a final attempt to curry favor with these elusive Catholic voters. And watch Mr. Bush continue doing what he’s been doing since the primaries: selling a positive, conservative message sprinkled with plenty of Catholic lingo. Whether or not he can hold onto his Catholic coalition will ultimately depend on what Mr. Bush does once in office. Not only will Catholics be watching to see if he advances the agenda he promised, but they’ll be watching to see how he advances it. That “kinder, gentler” prophecy may finally be coming to pass. Who said that anyway?
