Demographics and the Future of the Republicans and Democrats


With their November loss to Barack Obama, Republicans continue to hotly debate the future of their party. Liberal Democrats are happy to jump in, basically urging conservatives to agree with them, and be like them. “How should Republicans appeal to single women?” ask liberal Democrats. “That’s easy. Agree with us that taxpayer-funding of contraception is a new ‘entitlement,’ and that abortion is a ‘civil right,’ and that anyone who opposes taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood favors a ‘war on women.’”

Liberals are also telling Republicans to wake up and appeal to minorities. No doubt, Republicans should find ways to do more of that.

binocularsOne thing being missed in all of this, however, is demography—and not the way you might think.

The fact is that conservatives are having babies at a higher rate than liberals. This is a trend we have noticed for several years now, and has been noted in articles and books. It’s no myth. Particularly fertile are home-schooling evangelicals and orthodox Roman Catholics. Liberals, on the other hand, especially in the ultra-liberal Northeast and New England area, not only have extremely low birthrates but also extremely high abortion rates.

And this especially applies, tragically, to black Americans. In February 2012, I attended a conference in which a demographer (a priest) told me an astounding thing: black Americans, which today make up about 12% of the population, may make up only half that percentage in 50 years. Why? Because of the growth of other ethnic groups in America, especially Hispanics, and, first and foremost, because of the shockingly high abortion rates—not to mention contraception—in the African-American community.

Even more insidious, those abortions are being done by Planned Parenthood clinics in black neighborhoods. And they will be increasingly subsidized by the policies of liberal Democrats and Barack Obama—and most certainly not by the policies of pro-life conservative Republicans.

Surely, those who voted for Obama, millions of Catholics included, didn’t intend this.

Demography is destiny. And, yes, demographics influence politics. And there are some surprising demographics that the politicos have yet to fully consider and understand.


Dr. Paul Kengor is professor of political science at Grove City College and executive director of The Center for Vision & Values. His books include “The Crusader: Ronald Reagan and the Fall of Communism” and “Dupes: How America’s Adversaries Have Manipulated Progressives for a Century.”

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