New York, NY — The global demographic story of recent years has been the rapid fall in birthrates. Even in the developing countries, total fertility is down from six babies per woman in 1960 to 2.9 today.
Demographic momentum, however, means that even after birthrates fall to the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman over the course of her life, the population keeps growing while women from the bigger families prevalent in the past are still having babies.
While stabilization of the world's population (currently 6.26 billion) remains many decades off, most demographers now are at least confident it is coming.
In contrast, American population growth shows no signs of slowing. According to the Census Bureau, the resident population of the United States is now nearly 289 million. That's up from 281 million when the census was taken in April 2000. That implies a growth rate of close to 1 percent per year, somewhat higher than China's (0.7 percent) and a little below Iran's (1.2 percent).
In January 2000, the Census Bureau issued a long-term forecast, predicting that the American population, under the most likely circumstances, would hit 404 million in 2050 and 571 million by 2100. Yet when the new projections — the first to use the 2000 census data — come out next spring, they are likely to be higher.
Until the 2000 census numbers were tabulated, the government didn't realize it was underestimating the current population by 6 million (including illegal immigrants). Also, the population appears to have been growing slightly faster than expected since 2000.
While the 2000 projections are obsolete, they still provide a useful framework for thinking about U.S. demographics.
The census also issued low and high series projections, which vary from a forecast population at the end of this century of 283 million up to a staggering 1.182 billion, which would be considerably higher than the current population of India.
This remarkable range depends on factors such as how long people tend to live. Over the past decade, the average life expectancy rose by about two years to 77. The Census Bureau doesn't expect any major breakthroughs in life span over the next century, with its range of guesses for the year 2100 running from age 85 to age 92. Of course, hard-to-predict scientific breakthroughs or global catastrophes could severely alter those projections.
Birthrates are notoriously hard to predict. Demographers generally subscribe to the comforting assumption that all total fertility rates will eventually even out at the population stabilizing replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman. There isn't much evidence for this belief, however, as shown by plummeting European birthrates.
In the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, black, Asian and American Indian women all are having babies at about the replacement rate. White women are a little under that mark (1.87 in 2001). Hispanics, however, reached a fertility level of 3.16 children per woman in 2001, their highest level since the CDC began counting in 1989. Interestingly, Mexican-American women now have a higher birthrate than Mexican women.
With the Hispanic share of the population growing, the United States crossed the replacement level fertility rate in 2000 for the first time since 1971.
The total number of births in America fell by less than 1 percent from 2000 to 2001, perhaps due to the cooling off of the economy. The number of white and black babies was down while the number of Hispanic babies was up 4 percent. Hispanics comprised 21 percent of all newborns, up from 14 percent in 1989.
Much of the difference among the Census Bureau's low, medium and high long-run population projections stems from divergent guesses about future political decisions on immigration. The low projection assumes that immigration is cut back until only slightly more foreigners are immigrating as Americans are emigrating. The medium projection assumes that net migration stays at around 1 million per year. The high projection assumes the numbers of immigrants allowed to enter grows, although not quite as quickly as the native population.
(This article appeared on United Press International and is courtesy of Steven Ertelt and the Pro-Life Infonet email newsletter. For more information or to subscribe go to www.prolifeinfo.org or email infonet@prolifeinfo.org.)